A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
